Fed Scenario Planner
Pick what the Fed does at its next meeting, and the message it sends. See how markets have reacted to a surprise that size on past Fed days, given what is already priced.
And the message?
Likely market reaction on the day
Bar = most likely move · shaded = likely rangeFull meeting-by-meeting pricing: Central Bank Pricing →
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Data: CBOT 30-day fed funds futures via Yahoo (delayed); Fed-day surprises from the San Francisco Fed (Bauer–Swanson) to 2023, then fed funds futures; market moves from the US Treasury, the ECB and Yahoo Finance. Updated each weekday night.